FCPS Enrollment Projections Off For This Fall

According to an article by Holly Hobbs in the Fairfax Times, FCPS enrollment projections last year were off for this Fall: 

"In elementary schools, the average change from the projected number to the actual enrollment was 50 students less than expected across seven grade levels, including kindergarten.


However, the system did not see an even distribution of change from the projections."


In other words, some schools saw dramatic increases (i.e., Bailey's E.S. with an increase of 142 students) while others saw a decrease (i.e., Silverbrook E.S. with a decrease of 84 students from the projected enrollment).

While I'm sure that none of us are complaining about an improved student-to-teacher ratio at many schools, nor arguing about the fact that there is overcrowding at some schools, it does highlight the fact that the demographers were wrong in their projections for enrollments at the start of School Year 2010-2011.  It certainly begs the question - if the demographers were wrong about this year, how wrong are they about what the FCPS Board is touting as a crisis in school overcrowding by 2015 (only to be made worse through the closing of Clifton E.S. and delayed additions to other elementary schools)?  Perhaps if the public was able to audit the enrollment projection data and reporting, we would have a better sense of the accuracy of the demographer's projections for 2015...